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He has edited and written a number of training courses and books, the most recent of which was The Complete Guide to Electronic Futures Trading published by McGraw-Hill. Tremont is a global source for alternative investment solutions focused on three specific areas: HedgeWorld provides news and features about hedge funds. Visit Tremont at tremontadvisers. He has had a number of senior management positions with investment management and investment banking firms, including First Chicago Investment Advisors.
He is a director of a number or publicly owned companies including Azteca Foods, Inc. He received his B. He is a frequent speaker at academic and professional conferences, and is a member of the Pacific Pension Institute. He is the author of two leading textbooks in investments and corporate finance. He received his Ph. He is an acknowledged authority on employing direct-marketing strategies in investor relations programs.
Modesitt is chief financial officer of Kern County Resources, Ltd. He has been founding principal of two investment banking boutiques, and was the editor of a highly regarded newsletter on private investments.
Prior to joining Mesirow, Mr. Roberts has more than 18 years of real estate experience, including 11 years in real estate development with a national hospitality firm. He has a M. His research on managed futures performance was commissioned by the Alternative Investment Management Association in and has been updated frequently.
Prior to joining the Council, he held senior positions with a number of financial institutions. He was deputy chief economist with Chemical Bank and with Merrill Lynch, and was the chief economist of the Conference Board of Canada. We have provided information on the most common investment alternatives employed for diversification and for protection from cyclical dips in the equities and debt markets. The contributors to this book are acknowledged authorities in their respective areas, and all have had extensive experience in developing alternative investing strategies.
Each chapter focuses on the unique attributes of its respective vehicle or strategy: Trillions of dollars are invested throughout the world for retirement plans, endowments, foundations, family offices, and corporations. The preservation of this wealth is critical to the welfare of the citizens of developed and emerging countries. The theme of this book is wealth preservation. Alternative investments are strategic wealth preservation vehicles and strategies.
They are not necessarily speculative. They afford hedging protection and return enhancement when prudently employed. Being informed about the structure and nature of these alternatives is the first step in prudent employment. A Consideration By Ben Warwick Investment pros have tried numerous methods to protect their clients against the occasionally vicious whims of market volatility.
They all lead to one rather unconventional conclusion: Hedge funds and other alternative investments are better suited to generate exceptional returns than their more traditional mutual fund progenitors.
Even HSmokey Bear had his problems. In , Americans were in the midst of the largest world war in history. Later dubbed Smokey, the animal became the symbol for fire safety and prevention. There was only one problem with the campaign: No one seemed cognizant that fire is a natural part of the ecological cycle. That all changed in , a year that witnessed the greatest drought in nearly a century.
All that was necessary were a few controlled fires, and the woods would once again be safe for all to enjoy. There was only one problem with this new approach: Land management policies, based on commercial logging and cattle grazing, removed surrounding prairie grasses.
Such grasses encourage moderate fires that tend to burn out quickly. As a result, prescribed burns were hotter, deadlier, and spread much faster than anyone had anticipated. It was supposed to burn acres but was fanned by winds of 50 miles per hour in drought conditions.
It burned more than 47, acres and engulfed homes. About 25, people were forced to evacuate. In an effort to curtail naturally occurring disasters, such as the Russian rubleinspired stock market meltdown or the equally vicious Nasdaq carnage of late , investment pros have tried numerous methods of protecting their clients against the occasionally vicious whims of market volatility. Much like the Forest Service, it remains questionable whether these attempts have resulted in any positive consequences.
Sadly, investment managers have been as unsuccessful in adding value during bull markets as they had during bear market periods. As a result, actively managed funds have become increasingly correlated to passive indices. What solutions are available to those truly committed to producing excellent risk-adjusted returns? The purpose of this chapter is to describe the components necessary to build an actively managed fund capable of generating consistent, market-beating returns.
A return in excess of a broad representation of the U. A return on par with the U. The previous requirements assume that the fund is considered in lieu of an investment in the stock market. If the fund is to be used as a diversifier in a traditional portfolio, it must be non-correlated with the return of either A Dubious Track Record 3 the stock or bond market.
The fund should also generate an absolute return that is large enough to keep from dragging down the performance of the overall portfolio. As we shall see, the requirements for building such a fund are vexing. Factors at the root of this difficulty include dealing with the issue of idea generation, the problems of asset size versus performance, and the question of determining which parts of the investment landscape are best suited for that most illusive of quarry—tradable market inefficiencies.
This exercise will lead us to a rather unconventional conclusion: This example is much more the exception than the rule: Of course, this period coincided with the most spectacular bull market in history—a point not missed by proponents of active management. The year was the perfect year for evaluating the promise of active management to produce attractive returns during periods of declining stock prices and increased market volatility. Instead of the broad market advances that made indexed funds the investment of choice in the last decade, proved to be a year in which a select handful of stocks performed spectacularly enough to take the market indices to new highs.
So how did active managers fare? Still, investment managers seem to be obsessed with beating the market, even though they often end up defeating themselves in the process. As we shall see, the problem is more with the latter than with the former. The most common method is the use of company fundamentals in discerning the fair value of a firm. This style of investing was inaugurated in , when the landmark text Security Analysis, by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, was published.
Like many great ideas, fundamental analysis is much easier to perform on paper than it is in the real world. This is partly due to the large herd of investment professionals who use the method to manage billions of dollars in client assets. The resulting plethora of suspender-clad fund pros chasing the few incorrectly priced stocks that boast enough trading volume to buy and sell in large chunks makes a difficult game nearly impossible to win.
Curiously, the group most enamored with fundamental analysis is its biggest customer. Institutional investors seem absolutely giddy about discussing various fundamentally-based methodologies with investment management candidates.
Yet, it seems that this fundamental fetish shared by many big-time consumers of investment advice is a response to the bad reputation of the other school of investment philosophy: Market technicians believe that all of the information necessary to make a valid buy or sell decision is contained in the price of the security in ques- A Costly Conundrum 5 tion.
As a result, an examination of sales growth, profit margins, or other company-specific metrics is deemed to be unnecessary for predicting stock price movement. A cursory examination of price trends, trading volume, and other market indicators is all that is necessary, proponents of the approach argue.
Even though security prices have an occasional tendency to move in trends, the financial witchcraft associated with technical analysis is anathema to the gatekeepers of pension assets and other sizable pools of money.
Perhaps my investment manager is not keeping up with the market indices, these investors seem to be thinking, but at least they are not reading price charts. Unfortunately, this evidence amounts to a molehill compared to the mountains of data that suggest the market-beating potential of human intervention in the capital markets—regardless of the approach used —is close to nil. When one examines just how good his or her forecasting ability must be, the difficulty in generating market-beating returns takes on a particularly astringent taste.
On the flip side, one could make a large number of prescient but less accurate predictions. Note that the depth requirement dips dramatically as the number of useful insights approaches The curve only begins to flatten out as the number of good ideas passes A natural conclusion after examining Figure 1. After all, how can one generate such a large number of investable ideas without a cadre of highly trained professionals?
Judging by the vast increase in hiring by securities firms, this line of thinking is hardly original. The numbers become even more staggering for experienced players.
Some forward-thinking firms with the need to decrease their per-thought costs have sequestered at least part of their decision-making needs to computers. Quantitative models are excellent at sifting through mountains of economic and company-specific data, of course, but human intervention in the form of programmers is necessary to make this possible.
As a result, computers have minimized —but not completely eliminated—the cost problems associated with generating the next great investing idea. Much has been written about the decreasing levy charged by brokerage firms in the past few years, which has served to vastly increase the vol- The Real Problem 7 ume of trading on domestic exchanges.
However, it is the other costs associated with buying and selling securities that is most troubling among market professionals. One of the most egregious is market impact, which is defined as the difference between the execution price and the posted price for a stock. Market impact can be substantial and is often quite large at the worst possible moment. In fact, the spread could widen so much that the manager may decide that, based solely on market impact, the trade is simply not economically feasible.
Managers are thus forced to hold a position they do not want, which prevents them from using the cash gained from the transaction to buy a stock they do want to own. According to Charles Ellis, author of the classic tome Investment Policy, active managers would have to be correct, on average, more than 80 percent of the time to make up for the implementation costs incurred in active trading. Unless market pros can get a grip on the onerous effects of such costs, the odds of generating market-beating returns appear quite slim.
This one fact explains why so many investment managers are called to greatness. The most effective solution—limiting the amount of client assets that they are willing to accept—seems an abomination to many. However, by directing a relatively modest-sized portfolio, there is no doubt that advisors are able to implement their market strategies in a more effective manner.
Investment firms are barking up the right tree when they obsess about minimizing their transaction costs. If managers think that they have truly found a way to generate market-beating returns—be it through fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or a combination of the two—the trick is to maximize their fee revenue per unit of client assets under management.
This solution can take many forms. Some market pros may want to manage a much larger pool of client monies. In this view, managers assume that their revenue which would consist solely of an asset-based fee in this model is as dependent on their marketing acumen as it is on their breadth of market knowledge. Managers with a bit more ingenuity might decide to cap the amount of client assets they are willing to oversee. In return, they demand higher fees per dollar under advisement. This usually takes the form of a performance fee, which enables managers to profit from the success of their trading activities.
This latter course of action is commonly packaged in an unregulated pool of client assets referred to as a hedge fund. Such vehicles have the additional advantage of giving managers the freedom to express themselves in any way they deem most prudent in the capital markets. This lack of regulatory constraint is lauded by some and derided by others.
It should be noted that the hedge fund alternative is only rational if the investment pro is truly generating positive alpha. Unfortunately, a plethora of non-rational money managers have decided on this approach. It seems that David Ricardo tilled the soil of his intellect quite well indeed.
He left school at the tender age of 14 to pursue his career as a speculator. By his mids, he had amassed a fortune on the stock market. He retired from business at the age of 42 and spent the remainder of his life as a member of Parliament.
This law became the foundation of the free-trade movement, which set Great Britain on the course of exporting manufactured goods and importing raw materials. As we will see, this idea forms another important topic for alphaproducing investment managers—whether to specialize in a given style or sector of the market or branch out to include other strategies.
Andrew Lo and A. When they began examining stock price changes in , they were shocked to find a substantial degree of auto-correlative behavior—evidence that previous price changes could have been used to forecast changes in the next period.
Their findings were sufficiently overwhelming to refute the Random Walk Hypothesis, which states that asset price changes are totally unpredictable. The most important insight from their work occurred when they repeated the study 11 years later, using prices from to In stark contrast to their earlier finding, the newer data conformed more closely with the random walk model than the original sample period. Upon further investigation, they learned that over the past decade several investment firms—most notably, Morgan Stanley and D.
Shaw—were engaged in a type of stock trading specifically designed to take advantage of the kinds of patterns uncovered in their earlier study. David Shaw, a former computer science professor cum investment manager, reported similar market exploits.
When he founded D. Shaw and Company in the early s, a number of easily identifiable market inefficiencies could be exploited. According to him, increased competition caused many strategies to disappear. However, as an early adopter, he was able to use the profits earned from this prior trading to subsidize the costly research required to find more market eccentricities. There lies the rub. Specialists who limit themselves to one particular market anomaly may soon find themselves out of a job if they do their job correctly in the first place—that is, if they mine a market inefficiency to its extinction.
It is much better to use profits from such a discovery to underwrite further financial expeditions in other areas of the investment universe. One such grotto may be the universe of small cap stocks. As a result, an opportunity appears for savvy buy-side analysts to pick the next diamond in the rough. Some evidence supports this view, as nearly one-half of all small-cap domestic mutual funds have exceeded the return of the Russell Index over the last five years. Perhaps this is one rip in the efficient market veil that will take a while to mend.
The failure of analysts to keep up with the major market indices has been widely explained by the conflicts of interests inherent in such an environment. Many believe that the dramatic underperformance of analyst recommendations is due to the conflicts of interest that arise when the Wall Street firms act as investment bankers to the companies their analysts cover. That certainly explains part of the problem; another issue less commonly raised is the tendency for analysts to act in herd-like fashion, recommending one stock in near unison.
The thinking that perpetuates such actions is simple: That same thinking is rife in the investment management business. Job security is preserved if the returns of mutual funds are sufficiently close to the market indices and tightly clustered so that mistakes cannot be easily discerned. I believe that these behavioral biases explain why traditional mutual funds with asset-based fees have produced mediocre results over the years. Simply put, the managers of these funds are not motivated to generate the best possible return; they are paid to follow the indices and not rock the boat.
As Ricardan thinkers, alternative investment managers have an entirely different view of their role in the investment process. Hedge fund managers are a good example. Hedge fund fees encourage exceptional performance, while the commonly high amount of manager investment in the fund serves as a stopgap measure against excessive speculation.
A further incentive to performance is the widespread practice of limiting the amount of funds under management. Transparency issues, liquidity issues, and the tendency of convergence strategies to correlate highly during tumultuous market periods are all important topics worthy of discussion.
However, in our experience, they fulfill an important objective in client portfolios—the generation of market-beating returns. The often trumpeted spectacular successes of the likes of George Soros and Julian Robertson over the last two decades, contrasted with the dramatic losses of Long Term Capital Management and others in , have done little to advance understanding of an industry frequently shrouded in mystery.
Indeed, these examples have only fueled wild speculation and misconceptions, much of it press-driven, that hedge funds represent the ultimate roulette table for a chosen few. This perception, however, is inconsistent with the reality that hedge funds have remained one of the fastest growing financial sectors, experiencing unprecedented growth throughout the s. This chapter will show that hedge funds can produce superior riskadjusted returns.
We recognize that statistical results are routinely discounted by cynics who attribute these results to convenient curve-fitting or optimization. However, we contend that the results are not a statistical aberration but rather the result of the inherent source of return in the asset class. These terms are augmented by the positive selection of alpha intrinsic in the structure of all hedge funds.
Hedge funds are paid to trade —and have the incentive to do so—when others cannot, will not, or need to be on the other side. However, we recognize certain exceptions in niche markets and where it is difficult to implement a short position—for example, specialist distressed securities and high yield managers.
In , when Alfred Jones established the first hedge fund in the United States, the defining characteristic of a hedge fund was that it hedged against the likelihood of a declining market. Hedging was employed by businesses as far back as the 17th century, mainly in the commodity industries where producers and merchants hedged against adverse price changes. In his original hedge fund model, Jones merged two speculative tools—short sales and leverage—into a conservative form of investing.
Short selling was employed to take advantage of opportunities. Jones used leverage to obtain profits and short selling through baskets of stocks to control risk. He believed that during a rising market, good stock selection would identify stocks that rise more than the market, while good short stock selection would identify stocks that rise less than the market.
However, in a declining market, good long selections will fall less than the market, and good short stock selection will fall more than the market, yielding a net profit in all markets. He set up a general partnership in and converted it to a limited partnership in Although his fund used leverage and short selling, it also employed performance-based fee compensation.
Each of the previous characteristics was not unique in itself. What was unique, however, was that Jones operated in complete secrecy for 17 years. By the time his secret was revealed, it had already become the model for the hedge fund industry. Introduction 15 Jones kept all of his own money in the fund, realizing early that he could not expect his investors to take risks with their money that he would not be willing to assume with his own capital.
Curiously, Jones became uncomfortable with his own ability to pick stocks and, as a result, employed stock pickers to supplement his own stock-picking ability. In , Jones hired another stock picker to run a portion of the fund. Soon, he had as many as eight stock pickers, autonomously managing portions of the fund.
By , at the age of 82, he had created the first fund of funds by amending his partnership agreement to reflect a formal fund of funds structure. The so-called hedgers were, in fact, long leveraged and totally exposed as they went into the bear market of the early s.
During this time, many of the new hedge fund managers were put out of business. As Jones pointed out, few managers have the ability to short the market because most equity managers have a long-only mentality. During the next decade, only a modest number of hedge funds were established.
In , when Tremont began tracking hedge fund managers, it was able to identify a mere 68 funds. Fifteen years later, TASS, the investment research subsidiary of Tremont, was tracking 2, funds and managers including commodity trading advisers. Most of these funds had raised assets to manage on a word-of-mouth basis from wealthy individuals. Not only were they outperforming in bull markets but in bear market environments as well. The press began to write articles and profiles drawing attention to these remarkable funds and their extraordinary managers.
Because of this, they were prohibited from advertising, relying on word-ofmouth references to grow their assets. The majority of funds were organized as limited partnerships, allowing only 99 investors; the hedge fund managers, therefore, required high minimum investments. In the United States and Europe, the hedge fund industry of the s was an exclusive club of wealthy individuals and their private bankers.
Hedge funds currently represent one of the fastest growing segments of the investment management community. During the s, the number of funds increased at an average rate of The reason for the unprecedented growth is simple: Having attained significant personal wealth as fund managers or proprietary traders, the talented managers are leaving large companies to manage their own money.
They are establishing simple, corporate structures with limited employees and forming funds with absolute and risk-adjusted return objectives. These funds typically charge performance fees, usually 20 percent of the profits. By limiting the size of assets under management, these companies can react quickly to events in the financial community, trading without impacting share prices.
During the s, the flight of money managers from large institutions accelerated, with a resulting surge in the number of hedge funds see Figure 2. Their fledgling operations were funded, increasingly, by the new No. Size of the Industry 17 wealth that had been created by the unprecedented bull run in the equity markets.
Almost all invest a substantial portion of their net worth in the fund alongside their investors. The s saw another interesting phenomena: A number of the established money managers stopped accepting new money to manage; some even returned money to their investors. Limiting assets in many investment styles is one of the most basic tenets of hedge fund investing if the performance expectations are going to continue to be met.
This reflects the fact that managers make much more money from performance fees and investment income than they do from management fees. Lack of access to certain established funds created a large funds of funds business.
A fund of funds offers a wide array of managers for a lower minimum investment while providing oversight and monitoring of the investment. As in the mutual fund industry, where more funds than stocks exist on the New York Stock Exchange, one day there may be more funds of funds than individual hedge funds.
Although many of the original and truly great hedge fund managers may no longer be available to investors, the market continues to be well supplied with newcomers. We estimate that there are more than 5, funds in the whole industry. However, in excess of 90 percent of the U. About one-third of the funds but more than 90 percent of the fund managers are domiciled in the United States see Figure 2.
There are a number of reasons for this: The hedge fund industry has evolved in a culture of secrecy. This secrecy was mandated in the United States for statutory reasons, and hedge funds are neither allowed to advertise nor to hold themselves out as investment opportunities to the public.
Further, the culture of secrecy stemmed from the fact that most hedge funds either carry short positions or operate in unlisted securities. British Virgin Islands Fund managers domiciled in the United States 2.
Hedge funds in the United States are almost always structured as private limited partnerships. So are many other forms of non-public investment designed for the sophisticated investor. It is not unusual for private, nonSEC-registered funds to be included, accidentally or otherwise, in the overall hedge fund count.
Primary Investment Categories of Hedge Funds 19 3. Although more than 80 percent of the total assets under management in the industry are invested in the equity markets, the investment disciplines used are diverse and distinct.
Tremont and TASS have defined 10 primary investment categories in the hedge fund industry: All asset figures in the sections below are as of December The objective is not to be market-neutral. The manager has the ability to shift from value to growth; from among small-, medium-, and large-capitalization stocks; and from a net long position to a net short position.
The strategy may hedge with options and futures. Convertible Arbitrage This strategy is identified by hedged investing in the convertible securities of a company. A typical investment position is long the convertible and short the common stock of the company issuing the convertible. Positions are designed to generate profits from the bond and the short sale while protecting principal from directional market moves. Hedge funds may limit their activities to a single market such as the United States or they may invest globally.
There are two components to the overall return from a convertible arbitrage position: The static return is comprised of the coupon from the convertible bond plus the interest rebate on the cash from the short sale minus the dividend on the underlying short stock.
The volatility return is comprised of profits generated by short-term position adjustments of the short stock position. Adjustments are necessary to account for the changing ratio of stock needed to hedge the underlying convertible bonds as prices fluctuate.
Leverage may be employed to augment both the static and volatility return. Convertible arbitrage represents 5. Event-Driven This strategy is categorized by equity-oriented investing designed to capture price movement generated by an anticipated corporate event.
The Eventdriven category primarily includes: It also includes Regulation D Reg D investing and high yield investing. Event-driven represents 19 percent of all assets under management. Risk Arbitrage Risk arbitrage specialists invest simultaneously in long and short positions in both companies involved in a merger or acquisition. Risk arbitrageurs are typically long the stock of the company being acquired and short the stock of the acquiring company.
The risk to the arbitrageur is that the deal fails. Risk arbitrageurs seek to capture the price differential between the stock of the target and the stock of the acquirer. Profits result as the price of the target stock converges with the stock price of the acquirer.
Distressed Securities Distressed securities funds invest in the debt, equity, or trade claims of companies that are in financial distress, typically in bankruptcy. In this context, distressed means companies in need of legal action or restructuring to revive them, not companies in need of some approved medication.
These securities generally trade at substantial discounts to par value. Hedge fund managers can invest in a range of instruments from secured debt at the low end of the risk scale to common stock at the high end of the risk scale. The strategy exploits the fact that many investors are unable to hold below investment grade securities.
Further, few analysts cover the distressed market, ensuring that many unresearched and inexpensive opportunities can exist for knowledgeable hedge fund managers prepared to do their homework.
Distressed managers can follow either an active or passive approach. Active managers get onto the creditor committees and assist the recovery or reorganization process. Passive managers buy the distressed securities and either hold them until they appreciate to the desired level or trade them. Distressed managers can benefit substantially from the creativity of financial engineers. The growing complexity of debt instruments can provide extensive opportunities for the credit analyst and distressed manager.
Regulation D This strategy, usually called Reg D, involves investing in microand small-capitalization public companies that are raising money in the private capital markets. The manager can invest via the stock, convertibles, or other derivatives. Investments usually take the form of receiving a convertible bond or convertible preferred issue in return for an injection of capital.
What is unique about these securities is that, unlike standard convertible bonds or preferreds, the exercise price either floats or is subject to a lookback provision. This has the effect of insulating the investor from a decline in the price of the underlying stock. Typically, the investor will be long the convertible, short a percentage of common stock and will also hold warrants.
On the effective dates of the transaction, managers can exercise, if they choose to, and convert into common stock at a better market price. Managers may buy the high yield debt of a company that they think will get a credit upgrade or that might be in a position to redeem the outstanding high-coupon issue. Other areas of opportunity include buying the discounted bonds of companies that are potential takeover targets.
Some managers combine these strategies with levered pools of bank debt. Portfolio securities are generally sold when they reach upside or downside price targets or if the issuer of the securities or industry fundamentals change materially. Until recently, high yield was primarily a U. However, today it can be global. Some managers include emerging market bonds; others limit themselves to investment-grade countries only. Equity Market Neutral This investment strategy is designed to exploit equity market inefficiencies and usually involves being simultaneously long and short in matched equity portfolios of the same size within a country.
Market-neutral portfolios are designed to be either beta- or currency-neutral equal currency, long and short or both. Well-designed portfolios typically control for industry, sector, market capitalization, and other exposures. Leverage is often used to enhance returns. Statistical arbitrage is theoretically designed to be an equity marketneutral strategy. To date, liquidity concerns have limited the activity primarily to the United States, Japanese, and United Kingdom equity markets.
Equity market neutral represents 6 percent of all assets under management. The funds may use highly opportunistic investment strategies, investing on both the long and short side of the markets.
The portfolios can be highly leveraged. Most of these macro hedge funds invest globally in both developed and emerging markets. There are two schools of global macro managers: The success of these managers at stock picking resulted in substantial increases in assets under management over time.
As the funds increased in size, it became increasingly difficult to take meaningful positions in smaller-capitalization stocks the stocks often preferred by equity hedge fund managers because they are generally under-researched by the brokerage community.
Consequently, the funds started gravitating towards more liquid securities and markets in which bigger bets could be placed. Funds run by Moore Capital, Caxton, and Tudor Investment Corporation developed from a futures trading discipline, which, by its very nature, was both global and macro-economic in scope.
The freeing up of the global currency markets and the development of non-U. Global macro represents 8. Fixed-Income Arbitrage The fixed-income arbitrageur attempts to profit from price anomalies between related interest rate instruments. The majority of managers trade globally, although a few focus only on the U. To generate returns sufficient to exceed the transaction costs, leverage may range from 10 times up to times the net asset value employed.
Genuine fixed-income arbitrageurs typically aim to deliver steady returns with low volatility, due to the fact that the directional risk is mitigated by hedging against interest rate movements or by the use of spread trades.
Fixed-income arbitrage can include interest rate swap arbitrage, U. Fixed-income arbitrage represents 5. Mortgage-Backed Securities Arbitrage The mortgage-backed securities strategy specializes in arbitraging mortgage-backed securities and their derivatives. This strategy takes place primarily in the United States.
The market is over the counter and extremely complex. The two greatest risks are prepayment and valuation; all securities are marked to market, but the pricing and valuation models used by the different participants may vary, and overall market liquidity has a huge impact. Recently, a category of funds has emerged that is committed to maintaining net short as opposed to pure short exposure.
The short-biased managers invest mostly in short positions in equities and equity-derivative products. To effect the short sale, the manager borrows the stock from a counter-party often its prime broker and sells it in the market. The broker keeps proceeds from the sale as collateral. An additional margin of typically 5 percent to 50 percent must be deposited in the form of liquid securities. The margin is adjusted daily.
Leverage is created because the margin is below percent. Short-selling can be time-consuming and expensive. The manager needs very efficient stock borrowing and lending facilities. Because of this, short positions are sometimes implemented by selling forward—selling stock index futures or buying put options and put warrants on single stocks or stock indices.
It is generally accepted that the short side of the market can be much less efficient than the long side of the market. Restrictions on short-selling vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Europe does not have an uptick rule; in many emerging markets, short-selling is simply not possible.
Derivatives can be used to get around some of these issues, particularly in the United States. Dedicated short bias represents 0. Emerging Markets This strategy involves equity or fixed-income investing, focusing on emerging markets around the world. Certain commentators regard emerging market hedge funds as a contradiction in terms.
Many of the emerging markets do not allow short-selling, nor do they offer viable futures or other derivative products with which to hedge. Emerging markets represents 3 percent of all assets under management. Why Hedge Funds Make Money 25 Managed Futures The managed futures trading managers, otherwise called commodity trading advisers CTAs , trade in the listed financial and commodity futures markets around the world. They may also trade in the global currency markets.
Most traders apply their individual disciplines to the markets using a systematic approach although a small percentage use a discretionary approach. The systematic approach tends to use price and market-specific information in determining investment decisions. The discretionary approach tends to use price and market information as well as broader economic and political fundamentals in determining the investment decisions.
Managed futures represents 3 percent of all assets under management. The majority of funds of funds invest in multiple hedge funds five to with different investment styles.
The objective is to smooth out the potential inconsistency of the returns from having all of the assets invested in a single hedge fund. Funds of funds can offer an effective way for an investor to gain exposure to a range of hedge funds and strategies without having to commit substantial assets or resources to the specific asset allocation, portfolio construction, and individual hedge fund selection. A growing number of style or category-specific funds of funds have been launched during the last few years—for example, funds of funds that invest only in event-driven managers or funds of funds that invest only in equity market-neutral-style managers.
Although the preponderance of evidence suggests hedge funds over time offer equity-like returns with lower risk profiles, few studies consider the sources of the returns. Although the hedge fund structure is relatively new, the investment activities conducted within them are not.
These investment activities typically center on market-making and proprietary trading. Historically, large financial institutions were the only organizations with the capital, infrastructure, and access to conduct the trading and investment activity now common to hedge funds. Senior positions on proprietary trading desks represented the top of the career ladder for professional traders.
With the advent of hedge funds, another rung was added to this ladder. Traders who could establish a history of profitability and proven expertise could now ply their craft with investor assets, potentially earning both higher incomes and the opportunity to control their professional destinies. Over the last decade, two trends have developed. The hedge fund structure is drawing top-flight talent off the trading desks at an accelerating pace.
In broad terms, the risk capital funding the market-making and speculative activities of the largest proprietary traders is increasingly coming from private sources in the form of hedge funds.
These trading advantages include superior information first call on breaking news , reduced transaction costs either in the form of lower commissions or tighter quotes from the market-makers , and superior market access, as well as other structural and statutory benefits. These edges exist or were granted because the markets need these liquidity and speculative functions to be performed to ensure their smooth operation.
They represent the first component of the inherent return in hedge funds. A second level of inherent return is created by virtue of the fact that most of the specialized activities conducted within hedge funds require a substantial research infrastructure.
It is not economic, in most cases, for traditional mutual funds to build the appropriate research capability, given the Why Hedge Funds Make Money 27 substantially lower fees they charge relative to hedge funds. Risk arbitrage, for example, requires specialized expertise from analysts and lawyers. Given the fact that there are a limited number of deals at any point in time and limited liquidity, it does not make economic sense for a fund charging 60 basis points to hire the individuals necessary to conduct the activity.
Virtually all hedge funds take advantage of some type of investment edge. Many enjoy multiple advantages. To take a basic example, a specialist on the floor of a stock exchange is granted market privileges that average investors do not receive. Most notably, they are allowed to see the buildup of orders above and below the current price of the stocks they are assigned. Further, they are allowed to take the opposite side of customer transactions in their own trading accounts as well as receive other statutory advantages from the exchanges.
Finally, they execute their trades with the lowest possible transaction costs. Those factors are trading advantages, and the combination of those trading advantages means that even a specialist with a modest level of skill can ply his craft profitably. But not all specialists are equally profitable. Even specialists who cover companies with tremendous similarity can vary greatly in profitability. Although alpha usually determines the degree to which any given hedge fund prospers, virtually all successful hedge funds exploit some type of trading advantage.
These advantages include superior information, lower transaction costs, better market access, size advantages, and structural inequities in the markets in which they operate. One of the most common advantages is superior information, which often manifests itself in situations where the hedge fund manager is dealing in a limited universe of securities and financial instruments.
Typically, these managers will surface in an area where only a relatively small group of experts follows the instruments closely, though a larger group may follow the sector generally. In these situations, a mismatch of both expertise and objectives can be exploited to the benefit of the hedge fund manager.
For example, managers specializing in distressed securities develop tremendous expertise pertaining to a relatively small universe of companies. A given manager has the opportunity to learn more about a particular company than all but a handful of individuals.
Further, activity in the securities of distressed companies typically companies in Chapter 11 usually precludes involvement from large public investment funds. Relative size, either large or small, can be an edge. For instance, shortterm or day-trading equity firms typically benefit from the fact that their small size relative to large mutual funds allows them to capture smaller 28 HEDGE FUNDS market movements.
Size advantages can generate other advantages. For example, managers dealing in below-investment grade debt in a particular emerging market country or region can find themselves among the largest investors in that narrow universe of securities. As some of the largest players, they are viewed by the market as buyers or sellers of last resort. As a result, these managers tend to get the first call on breaking news, leading to an advantage in superior information.
That same size advantage compounds into superior market access as market-makers will typically make deeper and tighter quotes to the active investor compared to the occasional participant.
Large size usually translates into lower transaction costs. For example, most statistical arbitrage programs generate large volumes of equity trading, as every long position is matched against a short position. Furthermore, positions are usually turned over quickly. This makes them very desirable clients to their prime brokers, who offer them low commission rates in addition to the benefits of superior market access and first call on information. Other types of managers will benefit from structural inequities in the marketplace.
Derivative markets, for example, exist for the purpose of transferring risk. They typically facilitate transactions in which one party, saddled with an unwanted market risk, contracts with another to lock in a future price—a discipline known as hedging. In that transaction, the speculator usually assumes the risk position at some discount or premium to fair-market value.
In essence, the hedger is paying what amounts to an insurance premium to the speculator who assumes the risk. Hedgers usually operate in derivative markets for non-economic reasons. Their motive is to operate their underlying businesses profitably rather that look to profit from their derivative market dealings.
Another advantage lies in the broad investment mandates that are typical of most hedge funds. Managers are not restricted to the long side only or to listed securities only. Hedge funds typically can employ a wider range of strategies to capture an investment idea than most traditional managers. Put simply, hedge funds function as vehicles to capture manager skill, or alpha.
Virtually any financial activity can be packaged within the structure. The additional profitability of a trading enterprise directly related to these trading advantages is the inherent return of hedge funds.
As investment banks and other financial institutions retreat from the business of providing liquidity and speculative capital, that inherent return is being offered to investors in the form of hedge funds and other alternative investment vehicles.
Why Hedge Funds Make Money 29 Positive Selection of Alpha The inherent returns of the activities are amplified by a key attribute of the hedge fund structure: Performance-based compensation creates positive manager selection.
Only managers with established industry pedigrees have the credibility to raise initial assets. Only managers who continue to deliver compelling net returns to investors keep and grow their assets. The hedge fund structure is attractive to top-tier talent as it affords greater financial rewards to managers who can deliver net performance on large pools of investor capital.
Further, it allows successful managers to build their companies in their own image, working where and when they want. From December, its suppli- ers will: T im Tucker, chief information officer erf ShopKo.
Although data warehouses were first developed in the early s, there has been a surge in their popularity over the past few years, as a result of improvements in technology and the increasing need for managers to gain rapid access to information.
Data warehouses make it easier to access and analyse information because they bring together data from a number of systems that sup- port business functions. They arrange the informa- tion in a way that makes it easy to analyse, using such techniques as data-mining, data visualisation and desk- top mapping. It predicts that the proportion of medium-to- large companies with data warehouses will rise from 20 per cent to 80 per cent over the next five years.
The increasing familiarity with data warehousing has allowed suppliers and com- panies to focus on a new issue: Now people are t hinking lees about building a warehouse and mare about how to use it" says David Gittmgs. He -believes that there is pressure to open ware- houses up to a far wider group , of people, inside and oiitside the organisation.
Hie Web is the perfect vehicle for it," says Stewart Holness. The individual user only has to know how to use a stan- dard Web browser, which is relatively cheap and simple to run. Many companies are likely to see benefits in opening up their warehouses to their employees, suppliers and customers. MicxoStrategy thinks that they could go even further. It argues that many businesses, such as market research companies, credit card issuers, telecom- munications companies, banks and insurance compa- nies have accumulated demographic data that would be of interest to other companies in planning their sales and marketing.
Those companies could allow other companies to access their data warehouses through the Internet. By charging for its use, they could turn a cost centre Into a profit centre, it says. Wednesday of each month step in this direction, by allowing its clients to access its data remotely.
Wilson notes, however, that Axciom is careful about which companies receive its data in this way. It would not distribute data over the Web without vetting the recipients, he says. The question of bow widely data is distributed raises some delicate issues. Consumers may be sensitive about data becoming more widely available; in the US there have been moves to tighten regulations on how consumer data is used.
More generally, companies are nervous about the pros- pect of making corporate data available over the Web, because of the risk that it would allow competitors to gain access to strategic information. But he believes that it can be solved by careful software design. He draws a distinction between the type of corpo- rate information that may be freely, disseminated inside or outside the organisation, and more commercially sensitive data, such as breakdowns of product sales, which should only be accessed by a limited number of employees.
The security measures needed for more confidential infor- mation would add considera- bly to. Another issue that could hinder the take-up of Web warehousing concerns con- gestion on the Internet. Users of a data warehouse would quickly become frus- trated and disillusioned if it proved difficult to gain access to the Website. But suppliers believe the potential benefits of opening up data warehouses through the Net will outweigh their drawbacks.
Many have already designed technology that will allow companies to integrate their data ware- houses with the Web. In addition to allowing large companies to mine their data warehouses with Web browsers.
IBM has pro- posed a service for smaller companies that cannot afford or do not need com- plete data warehousing systems. They will be able to use warehouses hosted by IBM, fed by data sent to and fro over the Internet.
The companies that are getting involved In this mar- ket have high expectations. David Wells thinks the suppliers' confidence in Web warehousing is justified because the risks and costs of connecting a data ware- house to the Web are lim- ited. Not only is the market ewmil, but the costs of setting up secure Credit-card software were prohibitive.
However, in the past month, off-the-shelf software and. These services mark the coming of age of consumer commerce on the Internet. But Forrester estimates it will be worth Sbn by , and otbers are even more bullish. He points to Trafford Software, which will be the first company to adopt pjpex's service. In Canada, iStar will take over not only sales and advertising but, through its link with the Canada Post Corporation, distribution as welL The other factor companies must consider before moving online is the.
As David Aldridge, a vice-president of iCat, points out. By making it possible for a small team with a well organised distribution network to compete with the biggest retailers in the world, the Internet provides enormous opportunities for specialised groups, Mr Nuttall says. Oxford, says the large retailers should be watching out. It all started a month ago when my col- lege-age daughter needed a new flatmate. Spurred on by the pros- pect of paying the rent for the vacant room. I eagerly took on the task of checking out these applicants.
Since credit reports do not tell much about a year-old. I looked again to the Net Finding these young peo- ple on the Internet and learning about their life- styles proved remarkably easy. One young man appeared promising until I read his personal Web pages. Scattered with thinly veiled allusions to drugs, the pages provided new, and not encouraging, insight While in the investigative mode.
The white pages, in par- ticular. But privacy advocates are rais- ing alarms. These are valid concerns. There should also be limit s on how much information is provided in a directory. Yet I suspect that much of the opposition to e-mail directories is motivated by a desire to maintop the qua- si-anonymity of cyberspace.
I have little sympathy far those who hide behind pseudonyms to send mes- sages they would not have the courage, or stupidity, to deliver in person. Search tools may even help to clean up the Inter- net by bringing it to users that they are as much responsible for the words they tap into an online dis- cussion group as those that they express elsewhere. One can only wonder how many of the bizarre Internet news- groups would exist if partic- ipants realised that their true identity and address is not difficult to find.
To date, the privacy debate has focused primar- ily on tbe potential for com- mercial exploitation of per- sonal information. Yet information already freely available on the Net may pose a more immediate and potentially more serious threat to personal privacy. There are huge archives of information on tbe Internet that may contain embar- rassing. How long mil it be before an Internet check becomes part of the process of get- ting a job or a loan?
You are on the road. Whether it is Bangalore or Birmingham, you are a long way from home and office. So how do yon pick up your e-mail? Even assuming that you crawl under the hotel bed and figure out how to plug your modem into a for- eign phone jack, the tele- phone costs of calling your Internet service back home may be prohibitive.
Akin to h ank networks such as Cirrus and Star that allow custom- ers of one bank to use the ATMs of another, i-Pass is forging agreements among Internet service providers to enable them to trade time on each other's networks. The goal Is to provide local access numbers for travel- lers. Providers are expected to begin rolling out the service in the next few months.
This is an idea whose time has come. E-mail is now an essential form of business communication. Local access, wherever you may be. Marimba, an eight-month- old software business formed by four of the devel- opers of Sim Microsystems' Java progr amming lan- guage, is striking a chord with Internet publishers. PointCast, which pio- neered tbe Internet broad- cast approach with Its news services, has already proven the concept With its auto- matic updates of news on selected topics, PointCast Is a big time-saver.
The draw- back is that it may not carry all the news services you want Castanet in con- trast. Does this mean that even- tually there may be thou- sands of channels on tbe Internet? Alternatively, we may become far more selective about the services we choose to access. This technology could nonetheless change radi- cally the way information is published on the Internet. Already Marimba is begin- ning to look like the next Netscape.
I have a feeling we will be hearing a lot more about this little band of programmers. What are your views on Internet privacy? Are the white pages directories giv- ing away too much informa- tion?
Should snoops be able to search your newsgroup messages? Are Website operators tracking your activities? Join me in the new Eagle Eye discussion group on Ft. Louise Kehoe can also be reached via e-mail at l fcehoefdrr.
Marrying content and carriage — will media and telecommunications companies merge? Does the 'common carrier' concept have a future in the age of cxmvergJtnce? A VAT receipt trill be sent on payment of the registration fit. FT Conferences, Midland Bank pic. The Dispatches programme also asserts that a substan- tial change in export policy towards Buenos Aires was hidden from parliament. Mr Eduardo Menem, an Argentine senator and brother of the Argentine president disclosed in Lon- don on September 13 that he was optimistic about an early move to relax the embargo and authorise the supply of naval engine parts.
Argentine foreign minister, in New York on September Mr di Telia says in the pro- gramme that he used the meeting to reiterate Argen- tina's wish for an early lift- Manufacturing optimism grows By Robert Chote, Economics Editor The upturn in British manufacturing is set to gather pace in coming months, with no sign yet that the stronger pound is causing any problems, the Confederation of British Industry said yesterday.
The survey will provide ammunition for both Mr Kenneth Clarke, the chancel- lor of the exchequer, and Mr Eddie George, the governor of the Bank of Rngiand - the UK's central bank - when they discuss interest rates next Wednesday.
Over the past four months new orders picked up at their sharpest rate since April last year. Both domes- tic and export orders are forecast to rise more strongly over the next four months, although in recent surveys these expectations have proved over-optimistic.
The survey of 1, manu- facturers was carried out before the recent surge in the pound. But Mr Andrew Buxton, chairman of the CBrs economic affairs panel, said subsequent anecdotal evidence had suggested that industry was not worried by the present level of the pound.
Mr Buxton added that inter- est rates should be kept at 5. The pound edged up to Expectations of higher inter- est rates in the run-up to the general election - due to be held by the end of May - meanwhile receded a little in the sterling futures market.
Factory output has stag- nated for most of the past year, with tentative signs of an upturn during July and August. Reinsurance for earthquakes in California found By Jim Kelly, Accountancy Correspondent The London insurance mar ket is to provide Sm in reinsurance cover for the California Earthquake Authority - an innovative state-sponsored body set up to provide homeowners in the state with protection against catastrophe.
The latest figures on the market's involvement in the scheme were given yester- day in London by Mr Chuck Quackenbush. The earthquake authority will use private sector capi- tal and insurance cover and. Some insurance companies refused to renew policies and most are limiting new ones. Rather than legislate to ensure home- owners were covered he said the state had opted for a partnership with the private sector. He said it was a unique solution to providing insur- ance in areas prone to natu- ral catastrophe that could provide a model for other states and countries.
Mr Quackenbush said that once in place the scheme would be adequate to meet claims from a disas- ter - including the San Francisco earthquake of It would be sufficient to cover the quake two- and-a-half times over. Government in rail sell-off row By David Wighton, Political Correspondent A renewed row over the privatisation of the national railway network erupted yesterday after the disclo- sure that the government blocked a plan for excess profits made by private operators to be shared with taxpayers.
Mr Roger Salmon, the franchising director and for- mer NM Rothschild mer- chant banker, believed strongly that the best value for taxpayers would be pro- vided by requiring private rail operators to share any abnormal profits with the taxpayer.
But the audit office report reveals that Sir George Young, the transport secre- tary. In December , Sir George took the unusual step of directing Mr Salmon for- mally not to pursue profit sharing proposals. Ministers argued that such provisions could reduce possible benefits to passen- gers and would cut total returns to the taxpayer as bidders would offer less for franchises.
Mr Andrew Smith, shadow transport secretary, said: The report says was a record year, with 4, jobs promised from 35 inward investment projects com- pared with 3, jobs in the previous year. The EDB said it was revis- ing its three-year jobs target to from 12, to 18, The figures suggest that the ceasefires have had a less than dramatic impact on foreign perceptions of business prospects within the province. The documentary includes interviews with Argentine naval officers who confirm that the procurement of pans for Tyne engines, made by Rolls-Royce for Argen- tina's warships, had recently become much easier.
Rolls-Royce said yesterday it had approached the DTI about 18 months ago for guidance on whether the engines could be sold to Argentina under the embargo. The DTI had advised that the whole engine was subject to embargo but some of its parts could legally be exported. The company declined to say when the DTI pronounced this. The new bill will tighten up rules on waste disposal m ports, provide ministers with more powers to intervene in a pollution incident and require non-UK ships to carry full insurance.
Sir George believes last February's Sea Empress ou spill in Pembrokeshire baa heightened the need for new legis lation on marine pollution. It also represents the latest stage of the government's crackdown on sub-standard shipping using UK waters. Sir George is also looking for ways of passing on the costs of port-ship inspections to ship owners. Currently the cost is borne by the British taxpayer. A fifth provision will increase the liability to shipowners for compensation In pollution incidents.
It granted the first global licence yesterday to Britannia Airways, part of Thomson, the UK's largest tour operator. Britannia, which has been working closely with the CAA to establish the new global licence, said yesterday that it would speed up the process of establishing new routes and would save on administration. It was also a recognition of the ax pandin g international operations of charter airlines, it said.
Britannia said long-haul travel accounted for 20 per cent of its business from noth- ing 10 years ago. Meanwhile, research from the Association of British Insurers also argues that UK entry could have a positive impact on the industry - although the benefits would initially be modest.
Their fifth a nn ua l survey of long-term employment strategies attributes this optimism to the increasing use - of flexible working practices in the UK.
Monday by the widow of a headteacher murdered outside " a Loudon school. Mr Bart- holomew-White said he could answer questions if he were allowed to go to Denmark to obtain information. Mr Bart- holomew-White said he did not know the answer. The Scandex managing director said he had never visited the New York office, said to be at 99 Wall Street, and did not know the name of the company that employed the people working there.
Mr Heslop asked why calls to the number on the stationery reached a company called Roundhill First Capital, which said it had not heard of Scandex. When yon no find some thin g that is not carefnUy designed to appeal to the tastes of. One-off items emerging from the mbyte of single authors, once the bed- rock of- -television drama, sure becoming so uhusual that we tend to think they must be supe- rior.
But of course that is not so. But does it grab you as a drama? Shaw, however, so applauded the social audacity of Ibsenism that he kept moving forward from its premise. His women take charge of their own destinies, and some of them use men or drop men In so doing.
Over a century after he wrote it, Mrs Warren J s Profession still enthralls. The title alone, of course, leads you to guess what profession Mrs Warren had or has - the oldest one. But I love the skill with which Shaw, so unsensationally, first discloses that and 1 love more the awn with which.
In consequence, he then develops one ethical and psychological debate after another. Mrs Warren finally recognises that what toe likes, more even than her daughter, is making money. True, It shows that Bart- lett does not know how to work well on a large stage, bow to unify the different acting styles among his cast, or how to make us believe that all his characters belong to the same world.
But Shaw carries us over all these blips. Do yon ha ve the foggiest idea what is going on? This serial appears to begin with the desire that we should understand that colonialism and racism are wicked and that Rhodes stood for both.
It would be hard to imagmo anything less like formula drama than Loving. Much of the tune this felt like an episode of Upstairs Downstairs written by Dennis Potter, an irresistible combination. There was the Potter-like use of vignettes which seemed oddly disconnected, and an interest in the implications and precise use of language - studied, stilted, and yet somehow still peculiarly authentic — which also reminded you of the old rascal. Above all there was the similar use of music from the crooners.
It was so powerfully atmo- spheric that there was no diffi- culty in suspending disbelief and entering into that hangover from the Edwardian world, the great country houses of the s and 40s, which most of us know only from television. But when you finally re-emerged from the looking glass yon tended to won- der why, instead of all the bints and allusions, we could not sim- ply have been told the story straight out.
P erhaps this was one of those literary adapta- tions which win the approval of those who have loved the books because the TV versions remain so "faithful". But viewers who had not read tbe book - the great majority, presumably - might have been grateful for a little less literature and a bit more telly on the small screen.
Yet another BBC production, Beck there is an episode tonight at 9. It is made in minute Camp: Gruff-voiced, she uses a humming tremolo on her vowels. Catherine Cusack plays Vivie fall-out for bluestocking hard- ness: Neil Stacy, though he overdoes some pauses early an, hand les the urbane warmth and suavity of Mr Praed very well.
As his ecclesiastical father and as Mrs Warren's busi- ness partner, John Quentin and Ian Gelder lend strong, well- paced playing. Anyone could see the faults of this production, but in truth they hardly matter. Both cast and audience are caught up in Shaw's Play.
The macho central character is a blonde with a nice figure, single, but serviced by two wimpy, worshipping men. Her job is detection - she lives in London and tracks down miss- ing persons - but she is not a police officer. Luckily one of her adoring chaps is. She runs her own business with a multi- racial staff, bat is too jolly decent to charge high enongh fees to make a proper profit.
You could go to the pattern book and create any number of variations: Unhappily the much admired Prime Suspect series is now looking pretty much like for- mula drama, too. This is partly because, having helped invent the more-macho- than- men female-detective- with-wimps-m- tow stereotype it now looks awfully like the clones which fol- lowed it. Moreover, just as some pop record producers try for a new hit by producing something as nearly as possible identical to the last one.
More seriously, if you insist on sticking to the four-hour formula when yon have 90 minutes of good material, you begin to look slow and even risk being boring- Oddly enough this particular production. Here, instead of colonial- ism and racism, the subjects for the sermon sub-text were the proliferation of drugs and the loss of tbe younger generation to a criminal sub-culture offering something more a lt rra c tive than mainstream society.
Most disap- pointing of all was tbe infliction of the Mexican stand-off formula at the end, with DS Tenuison In the mandatory derelict ware- house facing the psychopath who has already pushed one victim through a hole in the floor. The plot contortions necessary to contrive this familiar climax were thoroughly unconvincing.
Having said all that, this was not a bad crime serial by prevail- ing international standards. Bnt wbat a pity that, by insisting on using tbe formula system, work- ing from the ontside in rather than the inside out, a drama which could have been outstand- ing became just another in tbe familiar catalogue.
Fash- ioned in every sense and. Right up to the reclu- sive end of her days she mastered the art of myth-management. Set back-stage and on-stage at a concert in Paris in tbe s, the self-styled "Queen of Ajax" begins by kneeling on a Air jacket to scrub down her dressing room. There is even less dra- matic function behind the role of her silent, elderly dresser, other than to illustrate Dietrich's vio- lent mood swings from generos- ity to imperiousness.
Perhaps it is all a case of being too in love with the subject. Sean Mathias directs with kid-gloves on. Sian Phillips, however, lifts all this into a different sphere. She transcends mere impersonation, deliberately moving away from the iconic image and thereby delivering a delicious shock of recognition when, for the pur- poses of an interview, she sud- denly switches into the familiar public persona.
Some of the incidental music is cheap but the arrangements fit Phillips's bari tonal growl like a glove. It is shocking and pow- erfully dramatic. Would that the play could match her. At the Oldham Coliseum until Saturday, then on tour. I f not exactly an unsung hero of British music he has recording awards to endorse his special gifts , conductor Vernon Handley is not sung enough.
Deceptive because a full perfor- mance with speakers for Edith Sitwell's verse steers an exqui- sitely tenuous course between the Scylla of archness and the Charybdis of clod-hoppping. Tbe evening's soloists were Richard Stilgoe, an expert in brittle panache, not to mention near-Gil- bertian patter, and Juliet Steven- son. Add to this the fear tha t she might, lik e many of her colleagues, be tempted to "act" the Sitwell verbal arabesques. In the event all went swim- mingly. By now the listener felt as confident as Stevenson that she will and should do Facade again.
Throughout, the conductor seemed more attentive to the players than the speakers, doubtless adding to the tension of performing under the eye of the composer's widow, herself some- thing of a specialist in the work. Piers Lane was the buoyant pianist in the Sinfonia Concert- ante. Martin Hoyle Rely VS. Bach, Rameau and Rebel: Among them is Agrippina, who founded the city of Cologne.
Conducted by Alan Hacker, performed by the Oper K5ln. Soloists include Paula Rasmussen and Graham Pushee; 7. Each provides a comprehensive survey of what has happened in Danish sculpture since the era of the classicist sculptor Bertel Thorvaldsen.
The exhibition at the Ny Cartsberg Gfypothek features a selection of Danish sculpture from the period , including works by Ludvig Brandstrup, C. Schumann and Schubert; 7. Conducted by Bernard Haitink and performed tv tbe Royal Opera. Hundreds of villages have been burned down by Turk- ish security forces since Many now live in filthy shanty towns on the outskirts of big cities, lack- ing both employment and basic services.
More than 1, have died in political kill- ings. Of course, the violence is not one-sided. But that cannot justify the brutal behaviour of the Turkish state. To research the root causes of the war, he said, is a pun- ishable offence; to publish the results makes you a criminal or terrorist. Thus the Turkish people are denied the right even to think about the most funda- mental problem facing their country. He compared the Turkish state to a s inking ship, but said the Kurds to their great credit wanted not to abandon it but to help clean it up.
This time last year Turk- ish diplomats were lobbying hard for the customs union between Turkey and the European Union. Promises were made, and constitu- tional amendments passed, to improve observance of human rights.
Mrs Tansu Oilier, then Turkish prime minis ter, called elections for December 24, 10 days after the European parliament was due to vote. She presented herself as the last bastion of European democracy against Moslem fundamentalism, into whose arms she said Europe would drive Turkey if it rejected the customs union.
The European parliament took note, and the customs union is now in force. But the Islamists won the elec- tion anyway. The party which won most votes in four south- eastern provinces received no seats, because it fell short of a countrywide 10 per cent threshold. It is now in the process of being ban- ned - as happened to previ- ous parties which mobilised the Kurdish vote. Overall the human rights situation is clearly no better, and probably worse.
Not surprisingly, the Kurds and their friends are very angry. Mr Gerger even said foreigners who sup- ported the customs union had Turkish and Kurdish blood on their hands. But I am still not convinced we were wrong. To me it seemed a good idea, as it apparently now does to her.
Nor did l put much trust in her promises and amend- ments. Such legal provisions will always be ignored or cir- cumvented so long as Turk- Losing bottle: PepsiCo under pressure for its Burma links ish society has not Internal- ised the values on which they are based, and achieved a broad consensus on the need to enforce them. That can only be a long process, but there are signs that it is happening - one of them being the very fact that Mr Gerger could make such a speech in public as he did in London, knowing he would be back in Ankar a next day.
I suspect it even applies to Burma, although there one hesitates to disagree with Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, a leader who was able to dem- onstrate. If the junta were weak, divided and heavily depen- dent on western support, so that the shock of sanctions might induce a rapid change of heart, it would be worth trying.
But sadly that is not the picture given by recent reports from Burma. Its rulers are clearly deter- mined not to band power to Ms Suu Kyi at any price.
They have a firm grip on the country. For a long time they isolated it almost com- pletely from the rest of the world. There is little reason to think a further bout of isolation would damage their power. Isolation generally slows down economic and social change, whereas foreign trade and investment have been potent and radical agents of change through- out the world. Where the west withholds investment, it reduces its own influence. Pfizer forum Do more and better medicines keep people out of hospitals?
The study goes beyond individual case studies that have demonstrated the efficacy and cost- effectiveness of particular medications.
In the present analysis, information was assembled at the national level on all prescriptions, hospitalisations, surgery, and mortality from representative surveys conducted by the U. Department of Health and Human Services for and The data were classified by illness category, such as 'hypertensive disease" and "pneumonia and influenza," and I focused the study on the amount of change between and The main objective of the analysis was to probe for the existence of a systematic relationship between changes In the drugs prescribed for each illness and changes in hospital use, surgery, and mortality associated with the illness.
The results of the study show that within illness categories, higher- than-average rates of prescribing are associated with fewer hospital admissions and shorter hospital stays. Controlling for the possible effects of other changes, it appears that an increase of prescriptions is associated with 1. High volumes of drug prescriptions are also associated with lower rates of inpatient surgery. The study also examines the impact of another aspect of prescribing; the extent of change from to in the kinds of medications prescribed for a particular illness.
The key finding here is that along with the sheer volume of prescriptions, the "novelty" of the medications prescribed was also associated with reduced hospital use.
Interestingly, though, the definition of novelty used was the actual measure of the change in the types of drugs prescribed, and thus the measure would rise even with changes in prescribing that is related to new use of old drugs. Therefore, "novelty" broadly represents new approaches to drug therapy, rather than being strictly limited to new biochemical entities resulting from pharmaceutical research. As for the impact on mortality, the results were somewhat mixed, depending on what measure of mortality used: A lower rate of physician referral was also associated with relatively high levels of prescribing.
In addition, there appears to be no association between prescribing and ambulatory surgery- This suggests that the reduction in inpatient surgery linked to prescription volume, mentioned earlier, was not simply a shift in the venue of surgery from inpatient to ambulatory settings, but actually reflects an overall decrease in the volume of surgery. An additional compelling result of the study is that not only did additional expenditures on phar- maceutical products reduce aggregate health care costs, but also that the magnitude of the savings was substantial.
Indeed, the broad results suggest that every additional dollar spent on drugs was associated with several dollars of savings in the aggregate cost of hospital care. Although it would not be correct to infer from these findings that spending more on prescriptions and drug development is a painless method for reducing health care costs, the study does demonstrate the phar- maceutical industry's contribution to keeping health expenditures in check.
Based on common experience with the effectiveness - and often dramatic impact - of drugs, the findings of econometric analysis should not be terribly surprising. But the broad perspective of this study, encompassing essentially the entire pharmaceutical industry, and finding a substantial favourable impact on health care costs, adds another dimension to understanding the role of drug products in the health care marketplace.
The European parliament - voted amendments to the recent directive on distance selling which give the consumer greater protection against cold-calling. Financial services are excluded from the draft directive. Ken cniHim, chairman, Ria Oomen-fiitiitm.
Many of my colleagues and I at the headquarters of the bank Argentarta read with great interest your interview with our president, Francisco Gonzalez Survey: Spanish hanking an d finance, October However, your statement that no ashtrays are to be found In these headquarters is absolutely incorrect.
Thank you nonetheless for having written your profile. Sir, Denis MacShane Letters. There is an important difference. Much of thp pressure for action on labour standards comes from interest groups whose concern is to protect themselves from foreign competition.
The total number of awards did fall, but largely because the number of silver lower value awards dropped dramatically while tbe number of hi ghpr value awards such as multi, triple, double platinum and gold awards all increased. Year on year the total number of sales required for all awards increased from 20m to 29m. This does not seem to reflect a subdued market, more, a buoyant state of affairs.
Beaumont Sir, For two years or more you have published articles and letters written by every expert about the euro. I simply do not trust politicians' promises, nor their economic forecasts. Most politicians are idealistic, ambitious dreamers who lead us du mb voters into paying more taxes. From full nationalisation, back to privatisation in such a short timw is no way to conduct a nation's economic affairs.
I trust people who want to make money. The reactions of Europeans before this gamble are predictably mixed: Profound anxiety is more than justified, for both economic and political rea- sons. The principal conclusion I draw from the literature on currency areas, sparked off by the Canadian economist Robert Mundell in the early s, is that an optimal zone is one with a single flexible labour market.
A single currency can be expanded to larger areas, but only alongside a labour mar- ket in which relative wages are flexible and workers and entrepreneurs are ready to pitch tent elsewhere. The labour market of the European Union, with its 18 m unemployed, is very far from being integrated.
Hie most important barriers are those of language and cul- ture. Other barriers, such as over-generous unemploy- ment benefits, national social security entitlements, non-portability of pension rights and public subsidies to "fling industries, could in principle be removed by reforming public policy.
But in large parts of Europe, for the foreseeable future, they will reinforce the cultural differences, strongly discour- aging people from seeking work away from home. Thus, Spain, with a 20 per cent headline unemployment rate, and around 10 per cent of its labour force employed in the black economy, constitutes not only a defec- tive monetary zone in itself.
A further reason for resist- ing the entry into Emu of countries with rigid labour markets, such as Spain, is that, once inside, they will demand subsidies to allevi- ate tbelr plight. This will prolong the illness. The clearest example is Canada, where the Atlantic provinces and Quebec suffer from structural unemployment and with this pretext draw subsidies to an extent that endangers the federation.
Flexible exchange rates would not help a country with a rigid labour market, but neither would merging this country in a monetary union do either it or the union any good: Emu is peddled as a political nos- trum to cure all ailments. The Germans want the union to stop them from foiling into Nazi ways.
The French want to be cured of an inferiority complex. The Italians want to become a nation. The Spaniards want to bury Franco. The Portu- guese want to be French. Doing away with competi- tion in the monetary field is really an attempt to make the move to a federal Europe irrevocable in the hope that monetary union wfll give a huge boost to centralisation in the EU.
The European Central Bank will decide interest rate policy for afl member states. The Ecofln council of finance ministers] will super- vise their budgetary policy. Pressures will mount from the poorer member countries to get subsidies, and from the richer, to equalise social contributions and benefits across the community, in search of the proverbial level playing field that was a part, of Mr Defers' flat earth eco- nomics.
The conflict between deep- ening and widening the union win sharpen. Instead of toe euro running in paral- lel with the east European currencies, a long time will have to elapse before the central bank governors of Poland or the Czech Repub- lic join the exalted board of the Frankfurt monetary authority.
Some of the backers erf the euro have sought to create a reserve currency that could look the dollar in the eye. This fits in with an anti- Americanism prevalent in continental circles. They have forgotten that America saved our. They prefer the cosiness of their tribal customs to the riches of an Atlantic culture.
Instead of thinking of a north Atlantic free trade area, many Emu backers dream of Fortress Europe. If I spoke as a Spaniard, I might be tempted to hope for an early completion of mone- tary union that would- force my country to control public spending and get rid of its inflationary habits. But speaking as a European, I reject the attempt to foist a federation on proud nation, states.
It is obvious from my anal- ysis that Europe would do - well to re think its monetary. T ;-- '' Paying good dividends. This - is an '. Specifically, they object that by proposing to base the statute on the catch-all Article of the EU treaty - which allows for legislation not covered by other parts of the treaty - the European Commis- sion is exceeding its authority. Prospects for EU action on the blocking statute may there- fore depend on the D anish gov- ernment's ability to square domestic political constituen- cies.
Denmark's position may be extreme - but it also points to a wider problem. Other govern ments, including Britain. France and Germany, are all suspicious that Brussels is out to enlarge EU powers over external trade policy at the expense of national sovereignty.
In this instance, these misgiv- ings seem to have been out- weighed by anger at the US leg- islation. But much the same reservations tie behind the resistance from EU govern- ments to a recent Commission demand that its authority to negotiate on trade in goods be extended also to cover services The specific legal points on which the arguments turn are often technical and arcane. But they reflect deep institutional strains in the EU. Deciding how to square this cir- cle should be a priority for the inter-governmental conference.
Enlarging Nato By publicly pledging that Nato will expand by April Presi- dent Bill Clinton has thrown his personal weight behind a proj- ect that will require political courage and steady nerves both in Washington and in every cap- ital in Europe. Hie prize of a new European security order, with an enlarged and reformed Nato at its core, is an enormously desirable one. But huge pitfalls lie ahead. They include the near certainty of scare tactics by Russia, which has hinted darkly at retaliatory measures if Nato expands without its consent.
Mr Clinton took a first step towards addressing that prob- lem by ingestin g yesterday that enlargement was not directed against anyone. Nevertheless, the US and its allies stiD face an acute dilemma: In private, senior western pol- iticians are laying down some guidelines as to what can and cannot be done to reassure Rus- sia.
In essence, they say that any conciliatory gestures the west makes to Moscow should be something more than the dip- lomatic equivalent of a crumb for a hungry and ill-tempered bear. They must be measures that are desirable in them- selves. The IIS proposal for a Nato- Russia charter, providing a framework for political consul- tation and joint crisis management, would seem to pass this test.
So would the Pen- tagon's proposal for closer Nato- Russia co-operation in peace- keeping. The terms of a possible char- ter must be designed carefully so as to avoid giving Moscow a veto over alliance decisions. But in every area except perfor- mance of its core function - defending the territory of its members - Nato could do a great deal more to inform and involve Russia. As of now, Nato's members face no visible threat of inva- sion. If that remains the case, the reformed alliance will spend an increasing proportion of its time carrying out new func- tions.
Russia must be told that it has everything to gain from co-operation with Nato expan- sion, and nothing to gain by obstruction. In some fr anchis es, over 40 per cent of the customers who do sign up Gail to renew. Only one in five households passed by cable signs up for cable TV. The industry bag been more success- ful in selling telephone services: Vo doubt this partly refletfs wor marketing by an industry vhich still has the mind-set of a ifflity. Two mare threats are visible: The challenge for the cable industry is to establish a strong, positive image of the services it can provide.
The industry s growing concentration - once yesterday's deal goes through, two groups will between them serve more than half the poten- tial UK market - makes that fgqk easier. It will still not be a sure bet. No country is more openly Eurosceptic than Britain. Today, however, Mr Alexander Kwasniewski, the affable Polish president, will continue bis wooing of tbe EU when he comes to London for two days of talks with Mr John Major, the UK prime minister, and other senior officials.
Mr Major, leader of the Conservative party, is a monoglot Englishman, while Mr Kwasniewski is a polyglot for- mer communist apparatchik who is well received in the capitals of both eastern and western Europe. Mr Kwasniewski, it is true, is despised by an irreconcilable minority of Poles.
For them he will always be a turncoat and former lackey of the Soviet Union. He has not been able to exchange a single word with his predecessor. Mr Lech Walesa, the former Solidarity leader, who even refused to attend the swear- ing-in ceremony last December. But Mr Kwasniewski has four years of a five-year term as exec- utive president ahead of him, and is widely seen as an able ambas- sador far his country.
Unlike the British, who tend to see European involvement in their affairs as an infringement of sovereignty. Poles and other central Europea ns regard entry into both the EU and Nato as an expression of their recently regained sovereignty and free- dom of choice.
Mr Grzegorz Kolodko, finance minister, estimates Poland's 39m people will have a gross domestic product half the size of Russia's by the turn of the century.
Mr Kwasniewski gave the Interview hours after receiving an ovation from foreign inves- tors. But fiscal rectitude and macro-economic stability survived the return to power of the former commu- nists.
As a result Poland's public debt is 54 per cent of GDP and the budget deficit, now at 2. Only inflation, expected to be running at about 18 per cent by the end of this year, remains way out of line, although it is steadily falling.
So one of our main goals is to cut inflation each year so it is absolutely under control by the time we enter the EU. Mr Kwasniewski hopes that Mr Major will follow suit But British officials say they expect a less than ringing endorsement for the target date. This would not imply any doubts about Poland's efforts or enlarge- ment in general, they say - merely concern that Warsaw might sign up before clarifying what it expected from the EU in the way of financial support, par- ticularly for agriculture: The UK wants the full costs of enlarge- ment to be clear at the outset and believes that Poland should not be hastily admitted in a purely political gesture.
For Poland, the priority is to be integrated into tbe defence and economic structures of Europe so that it is no longer left in a dan- gerous limbo. It is a matter of security, not ideology. Now I steer clear of such descriptions. They don't reflect the complex realities of real polit- ical and social processes. Bonn and Brus- sels before Moscow. Mr Kwasniewski, who revels in political anecdotes, recalls a recent visit to Moscow.
I said, 'Well they are all Nato countries, so wbat are you worried about? When we join Nato our relations will be as good too.
Feel the yield, the company has told anyone who will listen. So much more attract i ve than boring old D-Mark bonds. Which means that if most of thuffl actually buy. Sommer has a problem: So what does Sommer do? Subtly, ever so subtly, he has started signalling that retail investors will be disappointed if they apply for too many shares. There are even hints that they may receive less than the mmlmirm allotment of shares.
Meanwhile those nice Institutional investors - many of whom Sommer will meet during the coming weeks - are being assured that their tranches will not be gobbled up by greedy Herr and: Frau Schmidt from Heimsdorf.
Sing one tune at the first party and another at the next - always a good policy. AD that changed yesterday. So Chirac adopted a tougher tone. The conscientious security forces turned a deaf ear, which. He reminded Chirac that it was nearly a year ago to the day that Yitzhak Rabin, the former prime minister, was assassinated hy a Jew belonging to the extreme right wing. Meanwhile Chirac, who like de Gaulle tends to journey from France only when he spots an opportunity to stir things up.
That is proportional representation for - you. Under the new system, electors voted for.. That looked, more than respectable compared, for instance, with the centre-right United party, which had seven members of parliament before the election, including a former cabine t minis ter, it managed just 16, votes.
Those predicting- the end of socialism will be pleased to learn that neither the World Socialist NZ nor the Communist League party received any votes at ah. Then again, ideological balance was achieved by the equally bad performance of the Private Enterprise party, which also failed to garner any support whatsoever.
They are rather more bashful about such sensitive facts - each of which is supposedly carefully verified. But then the Who's Who team are a pretty secretive bunch themselves. The publisher refuses to name the 15 voluntary members of its powerful selection committee, charged. An uncomfortable, if not downright dangerous job. Perhaps that is why the committee's composition also changes each year. Russia wants to be a democ- racy and to be accepted by others as such.
A Nato of democratic states is not a threat to a demo- cratic Russia. But Moscow stiD retains some imperial expecta- tions. Nato reform and enlargement have their own separate timetables. While the strategic grounds for Poland's Nato entry are clear, membership remains fraught with practical and economic diffi- culties.
Ninety per cent of the equipment of the But we need to modernise our forces. We are pre- pared to privatise parts of our defence industry. If British Aero- space or Lockheed or whomever make a good proposal to source components here or help privat- ise our defence industry that would be good.
We think we have a moral right because it was here that the peaceful revolution started which made a united Europe possible. An American syndi- cate advances thirty millions of taels for the construction of the line which will be miles in length and will involve the bridging of twen- ty-seven rivers.
One bridge over the Whango will be of great length- Sheng has trans- ferred at Hankau works, iron- works. Bevin, Foreign Secretary, yes- terday told the House of Com- mons that it proposed that certain basic industries should be owned and con- tinued by the public.
Sumitomo said it was prepar- ing a second charge of breach of trust. Mr Naoko Kuroda, Sumi- tomo's managing director. Insisted, however, that his executives had found no evi- dence so far that Mr Haman- aka had attempted to control the copper market or to drive up prices. Neither was there evidence that he had acted for personal gain. Other copper traders ques- tioned the first assertion, say- ing that Mr Hamanaka had been able to move the market for nearly six years.
Sumitomo sometimes controlled a majority of physi- cal copper traded through the London Metal Exchange, giv- ing it extraordinary influence over prices. Prosecutors accused him of forging the signatures of two senior managers on two letters in , both to subsidiaries of Merrill Lynch, the US financial services group. The first, in January, authorised Mr Hamanaka, then a deputy manager in Sumitomo's non-ferrous metals division, to undertake copper trades larger than his official dealing limit, said prosecutors.
They said the second letter, eight months later, had allowed him to draw cash from deposits with Merrill Lynch units, relating to their copper dealings with Sumitomo. Mr Kuroda yesterday accused Mr Hamanaka of forg- ing many other letters record- ing fictional balances with cop- per trading customers. These are not included in the charges.
According to Mr Kuroda. Mr Hamanaka, yesterday remained silent about the alle- gations as he has done since he was sacked in mid-June. He had been involved almost to the end in a battle with some US hedge funds which were determined to drive copper prices down, while he was equally determined to keep them up. The president did not iden- tify which countries were most likely to become Nato's next members.
But it is assumed Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary constitute the first tier of eligibility under Nato criteria, with Slovakia, Slovenia and possibly Romania following.
Formal decisions will be made at a Nato summit next spring, following the annual ministerial meeting in Decem- ber. Traditionally, affiance pol- icies are set by a consensus of members.
Mr Bob Dole, his Republican oppo- nent, has repeatedly called for an expansion of Nato but the president, ahead by points in the latest public opin- ion polls, was under no great political pressure to respond.
No nation will be auto- matically excluded. No coun- try outside Nato will have a veto. Queue for Nato, Page 2; Editorial Comment, Page 13 Electronic airline tickets I Salomon Continued from Page 1 encode passport details and an Identifying hand print on a credit card or possibly some form of airline frequent-flyer card. On arrival at an airport, passengers will swipe the card through a machine and place their hands on on electronic reader - a process that the company claims will take no more than 15 seconds.
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